It's Never Too Early to Talk Retainees

There may be two and a half months between today and Draft Day, but the wheels are already turning in the heads of BFL general managers. Who doesn't have to worry about calling U-Haul this August? Here are the leading candidates not to be available for the draft.

Athens won't let Clinton Portis get away. The fifth overall pick of last year's draft is the closest thing to a sure thing the Woodchucks have. On the other hand, while Chris Chambers may not be a "sure thing," he's an awfully tempting gamble to take. The receiver has shown flashes of potential in the past and could be poised for his best season yet. Tony Gonzalez's numbers may be in decline, but keep in mind that they're declining from the point of being one of the best tight ends in the history of the game. He's still one of the best two... maybe three guys at his position. If you're the type who likes to play longshots, Ryan Moats is your guy. The second-year rusher showed flashes of being a future star, but may not be quite ripe yet. Also, don't overlook Jake Plummer, who is coming off his career-best season.

The question in Bakersfield is: How much is Peyton Manning worth? Unless the Mennonites are willing to deal the top pick of the draft, the only way the three-time BFL MVP is staying in pink and powder blue is if Bakersfield retains him for a third straight year. In the past, only three players have been retained for three years (Marshall Faulk, Kurt Warner, and LaDainian Tomlinson). The combined record of the three teams who retained them in those seasons: 6-33. Keeping Manning also means losing a trove of talent that helped carry the team to it's third straight Bucco Bruce Bowl, including Peyton's brother, Eli Manning, receiver Anquan Boldin, and tight end Jeremy Shockey. The Circus Bears also have two former star running backs who are considered declining, but both Corey Dillon and Ahman Green could still have enough gas in the tank to help carry a team on a playoff run. It's up to Robert Baker and Steve Young to decide whether the conversion rate of one Peyton is equal to any three of those five.

Mayberry is not a town that's well known for options. If you want to go out to dinner, there is a diner. When you need a haircut, there's Floyd. When you want to vote for Sheriff in town elections, there's only one candidate. Anyone who wants to have to decide between Olive Garden or Applebee's can just truck up to Mount Pilate. Fittingly, the Fifes never seem to be overwhelmed with options when it comes to retainees. Yet again, three names jump out, not because they are rock solid, but because they're the better than the other options. Donovan McNabb is coming off an injury, but should still easily be a top five quarterback. Reggie Wayne is one of the league's top #2 receivers, having toiled in Steve Smith's shadow last season and will definitely be back in 2006 even if Smith is not. The biggest question mark is Priest Holmes, who was rumored to be considering retirement. The Fifes used the second pick of last year's draft to get Holmes and can't afford to let him go if he's healthy and ready to play, even on a limited basis.

Moose River took one of the great sleeper picks in last year's draft, grabbing Lamont Jordan with the 14th overall pick, the team's first, having traded away its first round pick to West Coast. Jordan, the 20th running back added to a roster, stunned all the so-called experts last year, finishing second in Selmon Trophy voting. He'll have company in that backfield in the form of a second-year rusher, either Ronnie Brown or Cedric Benson or possibly both. The more likely scenario would have the Mounties tying up receiver Santana Moss and picking up a running back with a first or second round pick. If Moss falters, Plaxico Burress is also a worthy candidate for the third retainee slot.

Seaside has three obvious retainees, but two of them were the best candidates from last year as well. In other words, if the Squid decide to keep running backs Edgerrin James and Rudi Johnson, it will mean letting franchise receiver Terrell Owens go. Three men, but only two spots means owner Dave Bargman will have to weigh which of the three is most likely to slip to the seventh pick so the team can snatch him up again. Prior to his motorcycle accident, Ben Roethlisberger would have been a candidate, possibly with Owens and running back Warrick Dunn or receiver Michael Clayton, but those three have to be considered unlikely to be retained.

Whenever Sin City drafts its quarterback, you're going to see a very happy man donning the black and red. The Grifters have four strong receiving options vying for the three retainee slots. Team captain Chad Johnson, who has played all but four weeks of his career with the Grifters will certainly be back and tight end Antonio Gates has undoubtedly taken the "best TE in the BFL" crown from Tony Gonzalez. Future BFL Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison has the edge to be the third play on the roster, despite having surgery on his wrist and elbow this off season. His closest competition is from another receiver coming off surgery, Javon Walker. The Grifters may balk at keeping three pass catchers. In 2003, all signs pointed to Sin City keeping Randy Moss, Donald Driver, and Chad Johnson or Santana Moss until general manager Jake Bell made an eleventh hour decision to keep running backs Edgerrin James and Deuce McAllister instead. However, Frank Gore and Willie Parker aren't exactly Edgerrin James and Deuce McAllister.

The new kids on the block have to decide which of the Caribbean toys they'll play with this fall. Springfield has two options, which may be dictated by the status of quarterback Daunte Culpepper's knee. If the third overall pick in last year's draft is healthy--or close to it--by draft time, the Atoms may keep him with receivers Derrick Mason, who is coming off a thousand-yard season where he only reached the end zone three times, and Matt Jones, the player many experts are tagging as "most likely to have a breakout season." If, however, Culpepper is still looking rusty and/or damaged, look for the Atoms to stick with a pair of second year retainees in Tiki Barber and Torry Holt. Both are solid, consistant performers. In fact, unless Culpepper is looking like the 2004 version of himself by the second week of training camp, Barber and Holt is probably the way to go.

Toledo's had a Rocket in its pocket for years, and he'll finally be launched this fall. For University of Toledo Rocket Chester Taylor has been named a starter after spending the first four years of his career riding the pine. He'll have a quarterback and a receiver to keep him company, but both positions are up for debate. At quarterback, the decision is between first half MVP/second half injury report fodder Marc Bulger and talented but inconsistant Matt Hasselbeck. At receiver, the Neanderthal judge whether Joe Horn's worst season since being named a starter in 2000 is an anomaly or a sign of things to come and whether Deion Branch is truly destined for the greatness some experts are predicting.

For being the worst team of the last two years, West Coast sure looks good. With two of the top three running backs in the league already under contract in LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson and second year star Cadillac Williams backing them up, the Mennonites can concentrate on other positions while everyone else is scrambling for rushers. Keep in mind, they have the first pick of the draft, which could very well be Peyton Manning. There's also the option of trading that pick for a smattering of other high picks, helping the team flesh out some of it's needs rather than just sitting and waiting for those 20-21 picks in the bend of the draft.

Defending champion West Virginia has plenty of talent, but the two players given the most credit for last year's success have question marks. Shaun Alexander's question is easy to answer. Is he worth retaining as a second year player? Of course! The debate will be whether the Woolfs are better off keeping the reigning Selmon Trophy recipient or Bucco Bruce Bowl MVP Mayor Julius Jones and receiver Hines Ward. That debate could be easier to settle, however, once quarterback and rookie of the year Carson Palmer gets into camp and reveals the status of his off season knee surgery. A healthy Palmer and Alexander could weather any loses, but if the quarterback is hobbling, Jones may take his place.